will mining be on the rise again?

Fundamental analysis
BHP Group Limited (Broken Hill Proprietary) is the largest mining company in the world and the largest company in Australia by market capitalisation. It primarily mines copper, iron ore, metallurgical coal, thermal coal and nickel. Its largest mines are in Australia and Chile. Its main customers are throughout Asia, mainly China (55% of sales) and Japan (10% of sales).
And it is the focus on China that makes BHP stock interesting. The unexpected and very rapid opening of China and its borders to trade after almost strict lockdowns is likely to mean a very rapid recovery of the entire Asian economy in the next few quarters. Industrial commodities in particular are expected to be in high demand and BHP is a major supplier. Obviously, BHP is not in a position to jump by tens of percent in response to rising demand from Asia, but it can increase production by many percentages. To do this, the company will benefit from increases in the prices of individual commodities.
China is the world’s largest steel producer, which requires metallurgical coal. Urban housing construction continues to boom, with China building as many as 15 million apartments a year in its best years. Now, with government support, it is returning to this building trend. Construction and heavy industry will boom.
Results
The share price is up over 40% in the last 3 months which is a very solid increase (the S&P was up about 18%). BHP pays a dividend twice a year. For 2022, it paid $3.5 and $2.68, which represented 7-9% of the share price at the time.
According to the January 2023 investor report for July-August 2022, the company increased production in all of its major commodities except nickel compared to 2021. However, the company collected a higher average unit price per commodity in 2021 than in 2022. Overall, BHP has a higher margin on its products than its competitors.
Technical analysis
The RSI has moved out of the overbought zone back into the neutral zone, the sell signal is over. However, the crossed moving averages indicate an uptrend. The price has bounced off the resistance at around $71. This resistance has held since 2021. This is important information because the S&P 500 rose more than 25% in 2021, whereas BHP did not let its resistance at $71 push it higher, and the stock even lost ground towards the end of the year.
Conclusion
The dividend amount is just one of the main attributes why this stock is interesting. Fundamental improvement in conditions in China and expected growth across Asia is good news for the entire mining sector and commodity sales. This can have a positive effect on the share price. But technical analysis gives a very unclear picture, with several indicators contradicting each other.
As is the case with most value stocks and dividend titles, the investment can be reasonably profitable in the long run, mainly due to the above-average dividend yield. However, short-term speculation around resistance at $71 is very risky.