Oil has seen price fluctuations following the Iranian attack on Israel. Oil is currently falling, thanks to Tehran’s statement that the conflict can be considered over. Brent crude oil initially rose 0.7% to USD 91.05 per barrel, but fell below USD 90 after Tehran’s statement on the end of the conflict. Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones over the weekend. The attack, which had been expected for days, came in retaliation for an Israeli attack on Syria that killed Iranian military officers.
The airstrike was the first time Iran has directly attacked Israeli territory, senior US military officials told reporters on Sunday. The attack was launched from locations in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. More than 100 ballistic missiles, 100 cruise missiles and 100 drones were fired at Israel, senior administration officials said. Although the attack was significant in scale, Israel and the US shot down 99% of all missiles and drones. The attack thus caused little damage in Israel. Energy expert and founder of Again Capital John Kilduff said: «The salvo of the airstrike was so easily removed from the skies that the whole thing seems so well planned not to provoke further conflict with Israel.» , «In a worst-case scenario, violent retaliation by Israel could trigger a spiral of escalation that could lead to an unprecedented regional conflict,» he said.
Iran said through a press release that the attack on Israel was in retaliation for an Israeli strike against the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic facilities in the Syrian city of Damascus earlier this month that killed seven Iranian military officials, including a senior commander. Iran described its retaliatory attack as a landmark operation in which the Islamic Republic exercised its legitimate right to self-defence following a missile attack on its diplomatic facilities. The Iranian military said on the social network X «The matter can be considered closed,» However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, the Iranian response will be much harsher.»
Estimates of oil demand growth:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2024 oil demand growth estimate from 1.3 million barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day and expects demand growth of 1.1 million barrels per day in the following year, 2025. Oil production growth will increase by 770,000 b/d this year and double to 1.6 million b/d in 2025. OPEC+ is also expected to have a possible 6 million b/d of spare capacity in 2025. The IEA also said it expects four non-OPEC+ countries, namely the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, to increase oil production by 1.2 million b/d this year and 1 million b/d in 2025.