World trade recovery expected in 2024. World economists predict that world trade will recover this year, with a projected 2.6% growth in the volume of trade in goods. The following year, 2025, they expect even higher growth, at 3.3%. According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, global trade in commercial services grew by 9% in 2023. This was largely due to a recovery in international travel and growing demand for digitally delivered services, the company said. Another major driver of trade growth is the number of sporting events taking place in Europe during the summer. The easing of visa requirements in various countries and the revival of the tourism and transport services sectors have played a role in this upswing.
The EU-US trade meeting focuses on semiconductor technologies and supply chains. The EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) held its 6th meeting in Belgium with representatives from the semiconductor technology and supply chain trade, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis. The TTC Council was established in 2021 as a platform for EU-US cooperation that aims to develop bilateral trade, avoid trade barriers and coordinate technology and supply chain issues. New partnerships in the AI and 6G networks were announced at this meeting, including plans to increase cooperation on semiconductor supply chains, which includes protection against unfair practices.
EU and US trade 2013-2023. source Eurostat
World economists expect an investment-led recovery in the year ahead. Monetary policy is expected to start on the base rate side, with the ECB implementing a 25 basis point rate cut on 26 June. In the euro area, we expect the inflation target to be reached in the first half of 2026.